Faun Otter: Vote Fraud - Exit Polls Vs Actuals Thursday, 4 November 2004 Article: The Scoop Editor http://www.scoop.co.nz/ SCOOP EDITOR'S INTRODUCTORY NOTE: Within parts of the U.S. progressive community there is already widespread concern that electronic voting fraud may provide an explanation for the astonishing 8 million vote gain made by George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential U.S. election. Already there a variety of odd phenomena which have aroused suspicions about this possibility: For example: - In Florida Bush received a million extra votes, while Kerry received only 500,000 extra votes, in spite of a massive Democratic Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) and registration campaign in that state; - In Florida's Broward County, a democratic stronghold and heavily black community, unauditable voting machines recorded a 33% (70,000+) vote gain on Bush's 2000 results and a much smaller gain to Kerry - again Broward was the scene of a massive GOTV campaign; - In several places voters reported (http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/storiesView/sid/4154/) voting for Kerry but noticing the machine record their vote for Bush; - Recollections, reported here at Scoop.co.nz in 2003, that there is evidence of vote fraud in Florida in 2000 involving security holes in voting systems; - Observations that many of the security flaws reported in mid 2003 in vote counting systems remained in place for the 2004 count last night (see http://www.blackboxvoting.org/ for details.) But by far the most wide source of public suspicion about the results came from the stark difference between the exit polls, which showed strong Kerry leads in many battleground states including Ohio and Florida, and the actual results in those same states. Bush achieved a 5% margin of victory in Florida and came very close to winning Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Add in the fact that the reported exit poll results were changed in the early hours of Wednesday morning, and there was a recipe for suspicion brewing in the online internet vote fraud community last night. In order to attempt to get a firmer hold on the extent of vote fraud if it did occur Faun Otter (a veteran of the U.S. based vote fraud investigative community) conducted the following preliminary analysis comparing the initial exit poll results (note this link takes you to the revised results) vs actual results. - Scoop Co-Editor, Alastair Thompson ********** Analysis Of Exit Polls Vs. Supposed Ballot Counts Method Grab one site which lists the exit polls before they were "corrected. (Correction is the procedure by which the exit polls are retrofitted to match the figures provided by the vote counting machines. It is easily done by changing the exit poll results, such as the 2.00 a.m. flip-flop of the Nevada exit poll scores which was done without any change to the sample size. A slightly less obvious sleight of hand is to alter the weighting. Weighting is the name for a multiplier used to correct sample subgroups to match the proportions in the whole of a state population. Thus an exit poll can be ‘corrected’ by saying something to the effect, "Oh well, the vote results show we must have under sampled Republicans and therefore we’ll multiply that subgroup of the exit poll sample by 1.5 to make our results fit the figures the ballot counting machines are spitting out.") Here is one list as an example of raw (pre-correction) exit poll data: http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=386 [Note another list was published on Scoop.co.nz HERE - Scoop editor] Then take a look at the results by state, such as on this chart: http://news.yahoo.com/electionresults There is a bit of math involved but don't worry, I taught market research at a University - a place where Republicans fear to tread, according to the media’s own polls! The Bush people argue that the exit polls are skewed by the methodology employed. It is odd that they don’t say what that error producing part of the methodology might be. A skew means a systematic error is introduced by the test protocol and causes a consistent shift in one direction. IF this was true, then all the exit polls would show the same sort of shift from 'actual' results. The GOP offer an alternative argument that the exit polls are not large enough samples and therefore the results are off by a large random error. IF this was true, then the exit polls should scatter on either side of the actual result, especially if the final result is close to 50/50. So what do we actually see when comparing exit polls with actual results? There is skew - but ONLY in states which the Republicans had previously stated to be target states in play. The skew is in the same direction every time; that is to say in favor of Bush. The exit poll results are not scattered about the mean as the alternative theory predicts. They are all on the Kerry side of the vote counts as issued by the states except for a hand full of states which hit amazingly close to the exit poll figures. Here are the figures. They list the four contemporaneous and uncorrected exit polls. Kerry is listed first and Bush second in each pair of figures. Published = the figure presented as the vote count as of 10.00 a.m. EST on 11/3/04 Arizona Poll one 45-55 Final 45-55 Published 44-55 Colorado Poll one 48-51 2nd 48-50 3rd 46-53 Published 46-53 Louisiana Poll one 42-57 Final 43-56 Published 42-57 Michigan Poll one 51-48 Published 51-48 Published 51-48 Iowa Poll one 49-49 3rd 50-48 Final 49-49 Published 49-50 New Mexico Poll one 50-48 2nd 50-48 3rd 50-48 Final 50-49 Published 49-50 Maine 3rd poll 55-44 Published 53-45 Nevada: 3rd poll 48-49 Published 48-51 Arkansas: 3rd poll 45-54 Published 45-54 Missouri Final 46-54 Published 46-53 These tracking polls were right where you would expect them to be and within the margin of error. However, if we look at some other states, the figures are beyond curious. either the exit polls were wrong or the vote count is wrong: Wisconsin Poll one 52-48 3rd 51-46 Final 52-47 Published 50-49 Pennsylvannia Poll one 60-40 3rd 54-45 Final 53-46 Published 51-49 Ohio Poll one 52-48 2nd 50-49 3rd 50-49 Final 51-49 Published 49-51 Florida Poll one 51-48 2nd 50-49 3rd 50-49 Final 51-49 Published 47-52 Minnesota Poll one 58-40 3rd 58-40 Final 54-44 Published 51-48 New Hampshire Poll one 57-41 3rd 58-41 Published 50-49 North Carolina Poll one 3rd 49-51 Final 48-52 Published 43-56 Taking the figures and measuring the size and direction of the poll to supposed vote count discrepancy, we find the variance between the exit poll and the final result: Wisconsin Bush plus 4% Pennnsylvannia Bush plus 5% Ohio Bush plus 4% Florida Bush plus 7% Minnesota Bush plus 7% New Hampshire Bush plus 15% North Carolina' Bush plus 9% In summary our election results appear to have been tampered with to give Bush some unearned electoral votes. - Faun Otter ***** 93,000 Extra Votes In Cuyahoga County - Outrage In Ohio By Teed Rockwell Philosophy Department, Sonoma State University 11-12-4 Smoking Gun You may have seen the associated press story about the precinct in Cuyahoga county that had less than 1,000 voters, and gave Bush almost 4,000 extra votes. But that turns out to be only the tip of a very ugly iceberg. The evidence discovered by some remarkably careful sleuthing would convince any reasonable court to invalidate the entire Ohio election. In last Tuesday's election, 29 precincts in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, reported votes cast IN EXCESS of the number of registered voters - at least 93,136 extra votes total. And the numbers are right there on the official Cuyahoga County Board of Elections website: Bay Village - 13,710 registered voters / 18,663 ballots cast Beachwood - 9,943 registered voters / 13,939 ballots cast Bedford - 9,942 registered voters / 14,465 ballots cast Bedford Heights - 8,142 registered voters / 13,512 ballots cast Brooklyn - 8,016 registered voters / 12,303 ballots cast Brooklyn Heights - 1,144 registered voters / 1,869 ballots cast Chagrin Falls Village - 3,557 registered voters / 4,860 ballots cast Cuyahoga Heights - 570 registered voters / 1,382 ballots cast Fairview Park - 13,342 registered voters / 18,472 ballots cast Highland Hills Village - 760 registered voters / 8,822 ballots cast Independence - 5,735 registered voters / 6,226 ballots cast Mayfield Village - 2,764 registered voters / 3,145 ballots cast Middleburg Heights - 12,173 registered voters / 14,854 ballots cast Moreland Hills Village - 2,990 registered voters / 4,616 ballots cast North Olmstead - 25,794 registered voters / 25,887 ballots cast Olmstead Falls - 6,538 registered voters / 7,328 ballots cast Pepper Pike - 5,131 registered voters / 6,479 ballots cast Rocky River - 16,600 registered voters / 20,070 ballots cast Solon (WD6) - 2,292 registered voters / 4,300 ballots cast South Euclid - 16,902 registered voters / 16,917 ballots cast Strongsville (WD3) - 7,806 registered voters / 12,108 ballots cast University Heights - 10,072 registered voters / 11,982 ballots cast Valley View Village - 1,787 registered voters / 3,409 ballots cast Warrensville Heights - 10,562 registered voters / 15,039 ballots cast Woodmere Village - 558 registered voters / 8,854 ballots cast Bedford (CSD) - 22,777 registered voters / 27,856 ballots cast Independence (LSD) - 5,735 registered voters / 6,226 ballots cast Orange (CSD) - 11,640 registered voters / 22,931 ballots cast Warrensville (CSD) - 12,218 registered voters / 15,822 ballots cast The Republicans are so BUSTED. http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us /BOE/results/currentresults1.htm#top ...is the official website of the Cuyahoga county election board, providing irrefutable evidence that the vote was off by at least 93,000. Kerry lost Ohio by approximately 130,000, so this is not an insignificant figure that can be ignored, particularly when there are numerous other indications of voter fraud in Ohio and elsewhere. I think the only possible alternative is to invalidate the entire Ohio election, if not the entire national election. I'd say the game's up. America, it looks pretty much like you've been had. Sincerely, Teed Rockwell Philosophy Department Sonoma State University ***** Commentary WE WUZ ROBBED . . . AGAIN! By Bev Conover Online Journal Editor & Publisher November 12, 2004 - All you dirty, rotten, liberal, commie, lunatic, Bush-bashing conspiracy theorists, get it through your heads that George W. Bush won the Nov. 2 election fair and square. Never mind the facts, the corporate media slime have spoken; the same corporate media slime that are cheering on the criminal US bloodbath in Iraq. The media slime have decreed that exit polls aren't trustworthy. Really? Might this be a Freudian slip? How could exit polls be trustworthy from 1964 to 1996? Are they now saying, if truth be known, Barry Goldwater beat Lyndon Johnson, Hubert Humphrey won in 1968 over Richard Nixon and Nixon lost to McGovern in 1972, that Gerald Ford beat Jimmy Carter in 1976, that Carter creamed Ronald Reagan in 1980, that Walter Mondale defeated Reagan in 1984, that Michael Dukakis was victorious over George H.W. Bush in 1988, that Bush I prevailed over Bill Clinton in 1992 and Clinton lost to Bob Dole in 1996? They can't have it both ways, can they? Funny, the media slime spend their time reporting on the latest meaningless daily polls during presidential campaigns, as if they were handed down from on high. Of course, citing polls, along with who has raised the most money, who is more "electable" (the latest madness of the 2004 prez campaign season), who looks more presidential, and a whole bunch more worthless trivia too long to list, is a lot easier (and less upsetting to the powers that be) than reporting on candidates' stands on issues. But the one poll of substance, the exit poll, they say can no longer be believed if the vote tally cooked in computers - computers mainly owned by Republican-run private companies - doesn't match what voters told exit pollsters. Got it? Are we also to suspend logic and buy that these same prattling pundits would say the exit polls were in error if they had shown Bush the winner and the computers had cooked the tally for John Kerry, especially if the computers companies were in the hands of Democrats? Believe that and we have a mountain ski resort in Florida to sell you. It matters not to the media slime that once again the Republican employed every dirty trick imaginable to keep Democrats from voting - especially African-Americans. Nor does it matter that thousands of votes weren't counted because the keepers of the equipment programmed them to not register votes beyond a certain number. Nor are they upset by districts that reported more votes than voters. Every election has its problems, right? Gotta love that computerized voting, especially the paperless touch screen, despite the "glitches." Mathematical improbabilities are beyond the media slime. Hey, that stuff makes their eyes glaze over. But wait, they ran with the "moral values" bit 24/7 that all those Kerry voters told exit pollsters were high on their list. Hmm . . . the part of the exit polls showing Kerry the victor were in error, but the part about "moral values" were on the mark, but the part about Bush's war in Iraq being at the top of voters' lists of concerns were totally ignored. Uh, guess that means voters' concerns about the morality of the war was in error, too, right? Kerry, like Janet Reno and Bill McBride, folded faster than an accordion, despite all his promises that he would stay the course and fight until all the votes were counted. While some of you were shocked by his rapid concession, we were not. We are outraged though by his call for us to "heal." Heal when we have just come through a second stolen presidential election, a stolen Florida gubernatorial election in 2002 and more than likely a stolen California gubernatorial election in 2003 - and who knows how many more as computerized voting proliferates like poison mushrooms? Democrats Reno and McBride were the test targets in Florida in 2002. The last person Gov. Jeb Bush, George W.'s brother, wanted to run against in his bid for reelection was former US Attorney General Janet Reno. While Reno made a tad of a fuss over her squeaker of a loss to McBride in the primary, she, too, threw in the towel and beat a path back to her home in the Everglades, despite "malfunctioning" touch screens and questionable tabulations. On top of that, the following year, several trays of uncounted absentee ballots were found tucked away in a cabinet in heavily Democratic Broward County's elections supervisor's office. Jeb, of course, went on to trounce political novice McBride, who came off more like one of those Eastern Establishment Republicans of the Rockefeller era, a la Kerry (also known as "New Democrats"). Now the media slime have the audacity to refer to Jeb as "Florida's popular governor." Does that hit you in the pit of your stomachs, Floridians? Yet, John Kerry has the effrontery to tell us to "heal," when our country has been taken over by a bunch of rabid monsters who have stolen us blind, piled up debt to the sky, waged illegal wars on two defenseless countries and are eyeing others to attack, taken away our freedoms, shipped out our jobs, destroyed the social safety net, made us the most hated nation in the world and would turn us into a theocratic plutocracy, which is the form of fascism they will impose on us. And the corporate media slime cheer it all, denouncing those of us in the "reality-based community" as loony "conspiracy theorists," a phrase that they have added to the list of epithets, along with the word liberal. Whether they are delusional, bought or too stupid to care, we wuz robbed . . . again! First, by the media slime that destroyed the candidacy of Howard Dean and dismissed the candidacy of Dennis Kucinich before Democratic voters in but a handful of states got to select their party's nominee for president, then by rigged electronic voting, disenfranchisement of voters, voter registration corruption and, coming full circle, by the media slime that want us to abandon our sanity and bow down before Caesar Bush. Even by the cooked numbers, some 56 million of us said no to Bush. Despite that, the people in the nations Bush and his supporters have wiped their feet on will hold us all accountable for the crimes against humanity being committed in our name, just as all Germans suffered for the crimes of Hitler and the Nazis. Luciana Bohne was correct in saying it's the shame foisted on us by Bush, the neocons and the media slime that is the hardest to bear. And, like the Germans of recent history, we shall bear it for a long time unless we figure out a way to rid ourselves of these greedy, power-mad, bloodthirsty monsters. ***** BuzzFlash.com November 11, 2004 FIGHT IGNORANCE: READ BUZZFLASH The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy A BUZZFLASH NEWS ALERT BuzzFlash was forwarded a copy of a new research paper (271k PDF) on the exit polls from the 2004 election. In "The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy," Dr. Steven F. Freeman says: "As much as we can say in social science that something is impossible, it is impossible that the discrepancies between predicted and actual vote counts in the three critical battleground states [Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania] of the 2004 election could have been due to chance or random error." The odds of those exit poll statistical anomalies occurring by chance are, according to Freeman, "250,000,000 to one." That's 250 MILLION to ONE. He concludes the paper with this: "Systematic fraud or mistabulation is a premature conclusion, but the election's unexplained exit poll discrepancies make it an unavoidable hypothesis, one that is the responsibility of the media, academia, polling agencies, and the public to investigate." *** Thursday, November 11, 2004 GOP Wants to End Exit Polls A BUZZFLASH NEWS ANALYSIS As a BuzzFlash Reader said: "Gee, let's make it REALLY easy to cheat..." RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie wants to eliminate exit polls because he says they're not accurate, implying that the final vote was unquestionably correct. GOP Wants News Organizations to Abandon Exit Polls (subscription req'd)By Doug Halonen, TVWeek.com After early exit polls in Tuesday's election inaccurately suggested that Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry would trounce President Bush, Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie is recommending that major news organizations pull the plug on the prognostications. In remarks Thursday at the National Press Club, Mr. Gillespie said he is among those who were stunned by exit poll reports, which leaked widely on the Internet. "I would encourage the media to abandon exit surveys on Election Day and do what we do in the political profession -- look at the precincts and the turnout, see who's turning out to vote," Mr. Gillespie said. "Don't build a model that you try to, you know, build your own thoughts into of what you expect it to be." Mr. Gillespie conceded that the exit polls weren't reported directly by major news organizations themselves. "But with the Internet today, we're kidding ourselves, aren't we, to think that everybody in America doesn't know what the exit data is showing?" he said. He also said he was personally affected by the early reports, discouraged by what he was seeing. "But I've been through this before," he said. "In 2000 the exit data was wrong on Election Day. In 2002, the exit returns were wrong on Election Day. And in 2004, the exit data were wrong on Election Day -- all three times, by the way, in a way that skewed against Republicans and had a dispiriting effect on Republican voters across the country." Gillespie's implication that the final tally was correct, but the exit polls were wrong implies that our voting process is flawless and the people building our voting machines are nonpartisan and only interested in seeing a fair election. Anyone with the slightest knowledge of the seriousness of the widespread problems we have with our voting systems or the highly compromised partisans running our voting machine companies knows a truly fair election is not possible. Why would the GOP want to eliminate exit polls? Because it's the last semi-independent check of an election's accuracy and the only way to quickly determine if the votes cast for a candidate match those counted by the machines. Sheldon Drobny: "There's a huge difference between polling what WILL happen and polling something that has already happened. The reliability of polling something that has already happened is highly reliable vs. predictive polls, like Gallup or Zogby, which is very risky. The reliability can be, not plus or minus 4 percent as we see with predictive polls, but rather a much more reliable plus or minus one half or one tenth of one percent with exit polls, because those are based on asking people who already voted. I would even say that if the exit polling were done in the key precincts of Florida and Ohio, which it was, then these results should be practically "bullet proof.'" If the GOP eliminates exit polls before true verifiable voting is in place, there will be nothing left to warn us when our vote is stolen. Lastly, note that Gillespie only refers to the 2000, 2002, and 2004 elections -- all the major elections since George W. Bush dropped onto the national political scene -- as "being skewed against Republicans." There is a very good reason the exit polls showed more people voted for Democrats -- they did. As Greg Palast said, "...the exit polls are accurate." Source: Buzzflash posted by Eric Stewart at 10:06 PM